Trump’s Shadow Over Powell: FOMC Minutes Reveal Political Pressure Behind Fed’s Rate Decision

The release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes report has once again drawn attention from both Wall Street analysts and the Web3 community. As investors search for clues on where U.S. monetary policy is heading, the crypto market is quietly adjusting its expectations for what could come next.

Insights from the FOMC Minutes Report

The minutes, published three weeks after the last policy meeting, shed light on how Federal Reserve officials currently view the economy and interest rate trajectory.

According to the report, most policymakers believe it will be appropriate to ease monetary policy further in 2025, suggesting that interest rate cuts remain on the table. However, some members argued for keeping rates unchanged in September, highlighting internal divisions within the Fed.

Notably, several officials indicated that current monetary policy might not be as restrictive as previously assumed, leaving room for flexibility as the economic outlook evolves.

This follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s September decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. However, the minutes also revealed disagreements over the move—fueling speculation that Powell may have faced political pressure when making the call.

No October Rate Cut? Political Tensions Rise

Market observers are now debating whether the October 2025 FOMC meeting will bring another rate cut—or a pause. Several board members suggested that the September cut might have been influenced by pressure from President Donald Trump, who has a history of clashing with financial regulators such as SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Powell’s continued caution regarding inflation, combined with the overall tone of the minutes, points toward a likely hold in the upcoming October 29 meeting. Current market forecasts support this cautious stance:

Source: FedWatch

• 50 bps cut probability: 92.5%

• 25 bps cut probability: 7.5%

For now, the Fed appears to be balancing the need to support growth against the ongoing fight against inflation, carefully avoiding abrupt moves that could destabilize markets.

Crypto Market Reacts Calmly

Despite the high stakes, the crypto market’s response to the FOMC report has been relatively muted. The global crypto market capitalization edged up by 0.56% to $4.17 trillion, signaling investor confidence despite monetary policy uncertainties.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $122,151.44, up 0.25% over the last 24 hours, with a market cap of $2.43 trillion and $62.07 billion in daily volume. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) stood out with a 3.21% surge to $227.41, supported by a $124.21 billion market cap and $7.02 billion in trading volume.

This calm market behavior suggests that traders had already priced in the Fed’s dovish tone, waiting instead for clearer policy signals in the next meeting.

What’s Next for the Crypto Market?

Looking ahead, the October FOMC meeting—alongside developments in the **U.S. government’s potential shutdown or reopening—**could serve as major catalysts for market movement.

If the Fed continues along an easing path, liquidity conditions could improve, offering fresh momentum to risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech is being closely watched. Market participants hope he will hint at the Fed’s longer-term rate outlook—or deliver an optimistic message that could further bolster sentiment.

However, analysts warn that political interference could heighten volatility, especially for macro-sensitive coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Conclusion

The newly released FOMC minutes reveal a divided but cautious Federal Reserve, with political influences adding a new layer of uncertainty. While the crypto market has yet to show a strong reaction, the October 29 meeting will be the real test for investors seeking clarity.

Until then, traders are advised to monitor the Fed’s language, political developments, and macroeconomic indicators to navigate the market’s next big move.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.